Cross-holder mark surveillance across 45 public BDCs, non-traded vehicles, and mutual-fund N-PORT filings.
This report starts with a simple question: which BDC NAVs are least supported by the rest of the filed universe. We compare loan and equity marks across public BDCs, non-traded vehicles, and mutual funds to identify where one holder is already telling a different story. The point is not to declare the lowest mark “correct”; it is to measure where reported NAV depends on marks that look stale relative to other real filers. This week, the most important signals are concentrated in a handful of names where premium valuations, internal inconsistencies, and cross-holder markdowns are colliding.
In a sector-wide selloff, that distinction matters more than who merely looks cheap on reported book.
Active divergences
73
borrower marks in dispute
New this week
31
vs prior run
High-confidence signals
25
3+ confirmation layers
Waterfall inversions
11
structural anomalies
This week — decisions
Module 1
Best Long Setup
The name where the discount appears real rather than manufactured by stale marks. Reported NAV close to filed consensus, ILV holds up, stock still discounted because the market is de-risking the whole sector at once.
OFS
P/NAV 0.43× · P/ILV 0.44× · ILV gap -2.4%
Reported NAV $8.41, ILV $8.21. Marks substantially
agree across holders. In the current sector-wide de-risking, this is a discount
to a book value that still looks broadly credible.
Also considered
BCIC — P/ILV 0.50×
CION — P/ILV 0.53×
Module 2
Best Short / Hedge
The name where valuation depends on marks that other holders have already taken down. Strict filter: the ILV premium must be confirmed by an independent stress signal — transcript language, waterfall inversion, or material 8-K.
MAIN
P/NAV 1.66× · P/ILV 1.73× · 32% of book adjusted in ILV
Price $56.19 vs. NAV $33.92 vs. ILV $32.54.
Once cross-holder marks are applied, most of the reported book reprices lower.
Independent confirmation: waterfall inversion.
Module 3
Best Underfollowed
The borrower-level signal most likely to matter before the market fully notices — a single holder still carrying a mark that no other filer supports.
us telepacific
72.7pt gap · stale MAIN @ P/NAV 1.66× · marked down by MSIF
Mark range 26.4%–99.2% across 2 holders.
The stale holder trades at a premium to sector median, which means the market
has not yet priced this borrower-level stress through the equity.
This is one of the borrowers underwriting MAIN's premium.
MAIN holds 5 additional borrowers with the same pattern. See the short-side module above for the consolidated thesis.
Names where P/ILV sits in fair range and no triple-confirmed stress is present. Sometimes ‘no action’ is the most valuable signal.
The valuation lens
Stress-tested NAV across the universe
Inputs: 37 public BDCs, non-traded BDC vehicles, and
cross-referenced mutual fund N-PORT holdings. Every input traces to an
SEC filing.
Universe reconciliation: 45 covered → 37 in the ILV table. Excluded 8: 3 no valid positions for ILV (BCSF, GBDC, SCM) · 1 quarantined: non-tabular SOI format (latest parse: 2 rows, both unusable) (EQS) · 1 quarantined: multi-row value attribution (104/104 rows lack fair value) (FDUS) · 1 quarantined: fair-value extraction failure (2026-07-05 v3-trio attempt failed gates: row ratio 0.46, FV sum -23% vs stated — see soi_gate_PSEC_20260705.json) (PSEC) · 1 quarantined: narrative block format double-counts per-borrower block-total FVs (re-parse +40.5% vs stated total, soi_gate_RAND_20260706.json); incumbent v2 parse is also period-contaminated (53% eligible prior-quarter echoes) — excluded per Codex R3 no-grandfathering pass, 2026-07-06 (RAND) · 1 skip-list (SAR).
— Implied Liquidity Value
MAIN
Main Street Capital Corporation · feature case
ILV revalues each BDC’s portfolio at the lowest mark any holder
in the filed universe has assigned to the same borrower at the same or
more senior tranche.
The conventional question for a BDC sector
trading below book is whether the discounts are overdone. ILV reframes
it: are the premiums justified?
$33.92
Reported NAV
$56.19
Market Price
$32.54
Implied Liquidity Value
P/NAV 1.66×→P/ILV 1.73×
Universe ranked by P/ILV — premium at top
Ticker
NAV / share
ILV / share
P/NAV
P/ILV
Verdict
MAIN
$33.92
$32.54
1.66×
1.73×
ILV Premium
CSWC
$16.61
$16.16
1.41×
1.45×
ILV Premium
HTGC
$12.15
$12.13
1.43×
1.43×
ILV Premium
TRIN
$13.47
$13.35
1.31×
1.32×
ILV Premium
TSLX
$16.24
$16.17
1.10×
1.11×
Above Consensus
ARCC
$19.35
$18.07
1.00×
1.07×
Above Consensus
GAIN
$16.24
$15.06
0.98×
1.05×
Above Consensus
BXSL
$25.53
$24.03
0.97×
1.03×
Near Consensus
OXSQ
$1.29
$1.29
0.98×
0.98×
Near Consensus
GLAD
$21.50
$21.28
0.90×
0.91×
Near Consensus
GSBD
$12.06
$11.08
0.80×
0.88×
Near Consensus
OCSL
$15.70
$14.19
0.79×
0.87×
Near Consensus
KBDC
$16.00
$15.80
0.82×
0.83×
Discount to ILV
OBDC
$14.26
$13.55
0.78×
0.82×
Discount to ILV
BBDC
$10.94
$10.82
0.80×
0.81×
Discount to ILV
MSIF
$16.51
$15.76
0.75×
0.79×
Discount to ILV
HRZN
$6.23
$6.06
0.75×
0.77×
Discount to ILV
CGBD
$15.61
$14.76
0.73×
0.77×
Discount to ILV
PFLT
$10.26
$10.00
0.68×
0.70×
Discount to ILV
GECC
$7.95
$7.83
0.69×
0.70×
Discount to ILV
Verdicts — P/ILV ≥ 1.20: ILV Premium · ≥ 1.05: Above Consensus · ≤ 0.85: Discount to ILV · else: Near Consensus.
Top 20 shown. See methodology drawer at foot of page.
Credit deterioration signals
Reinforcement layers
Three independent views on which signals have the most corroboration.
Triple-confirmed names stack mark divergence with disclosure, PIK
concentration flags balance-sheet stress, and the conviction scorer
merges all layers into a single 0-10 ranking.
Confidence scoring stacks independent confirmation layers:
divergence exists + stale holder at P/NAV premium + 8-K disclosure +
PIK or non-accrual designation + earnings-call stress language.
Names reaching 3+ layers are the highest-priority review queue.
Borrower
Type
Confidence
Gap
Highest mark holder
RA Outdoors, LLC
Multi-holder
●●●●●
50.5%
MAIN, MSIF★cohort
Bluestem Brands, Inc.
Intra-filer
●●●●●
37.7%
MAIN, MSIF★cohort
Logix Acquisition Company, LLC
Intra-filer
●●●●●
22.8%
MAIN, MSIF★cohort
Event Holdco, LLC
Intra-filer
●●●●●
10.1%
MAIN, MSIF★cohort
Centre Technologies Holdings, LLC
Intra-filer
●●●●●
7.5%
MAIN, MSIF★cohort
Dynamic Communities, LLC
Intra-filer
●●●●●
7.5%
MAIN, MSIF★cohort
MoneyThumb Acquisition, LLC
Intra-filer
●●●●●
7.3%
MAIN, MSIF★cohort
Titan Meter Midco Corp.
Intra-filer
●●●●●
5.6%
MAIN, MSIF★cohort
PIK concentration as a balance-sheet stress lens. Names overlapping with
divergence signals should be prioritized — a stale mark plus PIK
designation means the credit is both mispriced and deteriorating.
A senior tranche is marked below a more-junior claim (capped at par) on the
same borrower. Recovery waterfalls make that internally inconsistent: if the
junior valuation is right, the senior holder is late to write down.
Inversion gap: 79.4pt ·
If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 79.4pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low
Inversion gap: 66.1pt ·
If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 66.1pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low
Inversion gap: 61.5pt ·
If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 61.5pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low
Inversion gap: 28.6pt ·
If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 28.6pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low
Inversion gap: 21.0pt ·
If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 21.0pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low
Inversion gap: 5.8pt ·
If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 5.8pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low
Consensus deterioration — 3+ holders
Borrower
Holders
Type
Gap
All holders
Lowest mark
ICIMS, Inc.
6
Multi-holder
27.2%
TCPC, GSBD, NMFC, OCSL, MRCC, CGBD
TCPC
MRI Software LLC
5
Multi-holder
47.2%
GSBD, CCAP, BXSL, OCSL, NMFC
GSBD
PPV Intermediate Holdings, LLC
5
Multi-holder
5.9%
BXSL, CCAP, NMFC, OBDC, CGBD
BXSL
Pluralsight, Inc.
4
Multi-holder
95.2%
GSBD, TCPC, OCSL, OBDC
GSBD
Thrasio, LLC
4
Multi-holder
79.4%
OCSL, MRCC, TCPC, GSBD
OCSL
Express Wash Acquisition Company, LLC (Revolve
4
Multi-holder
44.4%
MRCC, TCPC, BBDC, PFLT
MRCC
PetVet Care Centers, LLC
4
Multi-holder
16.1%
ARCC, NMFC, OCSL, OBDC
ARCC
U.S. TelePacific Corp.
3
Multi-holder
72.7%
MSIF, MAIN, CGBD
MSIF
SpendMend Holdings LLC
3
Multi-holder
66.4%
GSBD, PFLT, PNNT
GSBD
Isagenix International, LLC (6)
3
Multi-holder
63.9%
CCAP, MAIN, MSIF
CCAP
Diligent Corporation
3
Multi-holder
62.2%
GSBD, NMFC, CGBD
GSBD
RA Outdoors, LLC
3
Multi-holder
50.5%
BBDC, MSIF, MAIN
BBDC
Acquia, Inc.
3
Multi-holder
8.2%
TCPC, GSBD, OCSL
TCPC, TCPC
Confluence Technologies
3
Multi-holder
7.0%
GECC, BXSL, BCIC
GECC
GS Acquisitionco, Inc.
3
Multi-holder
6.6%
NMFC, BXSL, CGBD
NMFC
Urgent 8-K filings
No urgent 8-K filings in the last 7 days.
Redemption contagion — non-traded pressure on public marks
Non-traded BDCs under redemption pressure may be forced to sell loans at
discounts. Public BDCs holding the same borrowers at par haven’t adjusted.
Vehicle redemption status
Vehicle
Name
Redemption %
Shared borrowers
Stale at par
Public sibling
OTEC
Blue Owl Technology Income Cor
15.0%
2
0
OBDC
BCRED
Blackstone Private Credit Fund
7.9%
684
539
BXSL
OCIC
Blue Owl Credit Income Corp
6.0%
535
334
OBDC
HLEND
HPS Corporate Lending Fund
6.0%
160
94
—
ADS
Apollo Debt Solutions BDC
5.5%
293
228
MFIC
OBDC_II
Blue Owl Capital Corp II
5.0%
426
260
OBDC
ASIF
Ares Strategic Income Fund
4.8%
195
142
ARCC
PGIM_PC
PGIM Private Credit Fund
4.8%
9
6
—
GCRED
Golub Capital Private Credit F
4.5%
143
104
GBDC
NCPCF
Nuveen Churchill Private Credi
4.5%
20
13
NCDL
PCAP
Nuveen Churchill Private Capit
4.0%
83
59
NCDL
FID_PC
Fidelity Private Credit Fund
4.0%
2
0
—
GSPC
Goldman Sachs Private Credit C
3.5%
6
2
GSBD
Shared borrowers — public BDC mark vs non-traded redemption pressure
Borrower
NT Vehicle
Redm %
Public BDC
Pub Mark
Risk
jeppesen
BCRED
8%
OCSL
99.5%
6/6
STALE
oeconnection
BCRED
8%
CGBD
99.3%
6/6
STALE
consor intermediate ii
BCRED
8%
BXSL
99.1%
6/6
STALE
ep wealth advisors
BCRED
8%
ARCC
100.0%
6/6
STALE
higginbotham insurance agency
BCRED
8%
NMFC
99.5%
6/6
STALE
higginbotham insurance agency
BCRED
8%
BXSL
99.9%
6/6
STALE
bamboo us bidco
BCRED
8%
BXSL
103.4%
6/6
STALE
ppv intermediate
BCRED
8%
BXSL
99.2%
6/6
STALE
ppv intermediate
BCRED
8%
CGBD
100.0%
6/6
STALE
kona buyer
BCRED
8%
BXSL
99.1%
6/6
STALE
kona buyer
BCRED
8%
CGBD
99.1%
6/6
STALE
crumbl
BCRED
8%
BXSL
99.1%
6/6
STALE
disco parent
BCRED
8%
NMFC
99.8%
6/6
STALE
disco parent
BCRED
8%
OCSL
101.3%
6/6
STALE
galway borrower
BCRED
8%
BXSL
99.5%
6/6
STALE
Dividend coverage
Coverage ratio = trailing NII / annual dividend. Below 1.0× = dividend not
covered by earnings.
Ticker
NII / sh
Div / sh
Coverage
Yield
P/NAV
OXSQ
$0.11
$0.42
0.26×
33.2%
0.99×
AT RISK
CSWC
$2.12
$3.04
0.70×
13.0%
1.41×
AT RISK
NMFC
$0.86
$1.14
0.75×
16.3%
0.64×
AT RISK
ICMB
$0.44
$0.52
0.85×
58.9%
0.26×
AT RISK
SLRC
$1.29
$1.44
0.90×
12.0%
0.67×
AT RISK
GECC
$0.91
$1.00
0.91×
18.4%
0.69×
AT RISK
FSK
$1.95
$2.04
0.96×
18.1%
0.62×
AT RISK
ARCC
$2.02
$1.92
1.05×
9.9%
1.00×
BCSF
$1.79
$1.68
1.07×
15.2%
0.67×
BBDC
$1.12
$1.04
1.08×
11.9%
0.80×
GSBD
$1.63
$1.41
1.16×
14.5%
0.80×
HTGC
$2.20
$1.88
1.17×
10.8%
1.41×
MAIN
$4.05
$3.18
1.27×
5.7%
1.66×
CGBD
$1.95
$1.50
1.30×
13.1%
0.73×
SAR
$3.91
$3.00
1.30×
17.0%
0.76×
TRIN
$2.72
$2.04
1.33×
11.6%
1.33×
BXSL
$4.20
$3.08
1.36×
12.4%
0.97×
SCM
$1.83
$1.33
1.38×
16.8%
0.62×
GAIN
$1.33
$0.96
1.39×
6.0%
0.98×
GLAD
$2.50
$1.80
1.39×
9.3%
0.90×
NAV per share change
Declining NAV + stale marks = markdown has not yet hit the stock price.
Ticker
Prior NAV
Current NAV
Change
HRZN
$6.98
$6.23
▼10.74%
DECLINING
BCIC
$15.60
$14.49
▼7.12%
DECLINING
PNNT
$7.00
$6.55
▼6.43%
DECLINING
ICMB
$3.65
$3.44
▼5.75%
DECLINING
PSEC
$6.05
$5.71
▼5.62%
DECLINING
SAR
$24.42
$23.23
▼4.87%
DECLINING
TSLX
$16.98
$16.24
▼4.36%
DECLINING
OCSL
$16.30
$15.70
▼3.68%
DECLINING
MFIC
$13.82
$13.37
▼3.26%
DECLINING
GAIN
$16.78
$16.24
▼3.22%
DECLINING
FSK
$18.83
$18.30
▼2.81%
DECLINING
BXSL
$26.26
$25.53
▼2.78%
DECLINING
CCAP
$18.27
$17.82
▼2.46%
DECLINING
TCPC
$6.72
$6.58
▼2.08%
DECLINING
RWAY
$12.13
$11.90
▼1.90%
DECLINING
Implied Liquidity Value (ILV)
ILV revalues each BDC’s portfolio at the lowest mark any holder in
the filed universe has assigned to the same borrower at the same or more
senior tranche, then applies a redemption haircut. It is a stress lens,
not a fair-value claim. Most informative when the lowest mark is
confirmed by multiple independent holders.
Cross-filer — Different BDCs on each side of the divergence.
Intra-filer — Same BDC holds tranches at both the high and low mark.
Multi-holder — 3+ BDCs hold the borrower; stale cohort vs single markdown.
Waterfall — Senior tranche marked below a junior claim (capped at par) on the same borrower.
P/NAV↑ — Stale holder trading at P/NAV premium; market hasn’t priced markdown.
INT — Same-seniority internal inconsistency within one BDC.
Conviction scoring
Score 0-10 per borrower stacks six independent confirmation layers:
mark gap (0-2) + PIK designation (0-2) + non-accrual (0-2) + 8-K
disclosure (0-2) + earnings-call transcript stress (0-1) + premium
holder exposure (0-1). Scores ≥7 warrant immediate review.
Transcript badges
Ticker badges indicate the BDC discussed credit stress on its most
recent earnings press release. ★ = triple-confirmed (stress language
plus stale marks plus premium valuation). • = single-layer stress
mention. Hover any badge for the underlying quote.
Data sources
Schedule of Investments from 45 public BDCs via 10-Q/10-K EDGAR
filings; 13 non-traded BDC vehicles; mutual fund cross-references via
N-PORT filings; 8-K Item 2.02 / 7.01 press releases; market pricing
via yfinance. Every input traces to an SEC filing.