May 11, 2026

Weekly Signal Report

Cross-holder mark surveillance across 45 public BDCs, non-traded vehicles, and mutual-fund N-PORT filings.

This report starts with a simple question: which BDC NAVs are least supported by the rest of the filed universe. We compare loan and equity marks across public BDCs, non-traded vehicles, and mutual funds to identify where one holder is already telling a different story. The point is not to declare the lowest mark “correct”; it is to measure where reported NAV depends on marks that look stale relative to other real filers. This week, the most important signals are concentrated in a handful of names where premium valuations, internal inconsistencies, and cross-holder markdowns are colliding.

In a sector-wide selloff, that distinction matters more than who merely looks cheap on reported book.

Active divergences

borrower marks in dispute

New this week

vs prior run

High-confidence signals

3+ confirmation layers

Waterfall inversions

structural anomalies

This week — decisions

Module 1

Best Long Setup

The name where the discount appears real rather than manufactured by stale marks. Reported NAV close to filed consensus, ILV holds up, stock still discounted because the market is de-risking the whole sector at once.

OFS

P/NAV 0.42× · P/ILV 0.42× · ILV gap 0.0%

Reported NAV $9.19, ILV $9.19. Marks substantially agree across holders. In the current sector-wide de-risking, this is a discount to a book value that still looks broadly credible.

Also considered

ICMB — P/ILV 0.41×

FSK — P/ILV 0.53×

Module 2

Best Short / Hedge

The name where valuation depends on marks that other holders have already taken down. Strict filter: the ILV premium must be confirmed by an independent stress signal — transcript language, waterfall inversion, or material 8-K.

MAIN

P/NAV 1.62× · P/ILV 1.70× · 55% of book adjusted in ILV

Price $54.01 vs. NAV $33.33 vs. ILV $31.68. The premium depends on marks other holders have already taken down. Independent confirmation: waterfall inversion.

Also considered

CGBD — P/ILV 1.60×

Module 3

Best Underfollowed

The borrower-level signal most likely to matter before the market fully notices — where one holder is reporting a mark the rest of the filed universe has already written down.

us telepacific

97.8pt gap · stale MAIN @ P/NAV 1.62× · marked down by MSIF

Mark range 2.2%–100.0% across 9 holders. The stale holder trades at a premium to sector median, which means the market has not yet priced this borrower-level stress through the equity.

MAIN holds 5 additional borrowers with the same pattern. See the short-side module above for the consolidated thesis.

Fair Value · No Action

BXSL (1.00×) · GLAD (0.96×) · TSLX (1.06×) · MFIC (0.93×) · OXSQ (1.08×) · SSSS (1.08×) · PFLT (0.89×) · GAIN (1.14×)

Names where P/ILV sits in fair range and no triple-confirmed stress is present. Sometimes ‘no action’ is the most valuable signal.

The valuation lens

Stress-tested NAV across the universe

Inputs: 28 public BDCs, non-traded BDC vehicles, and cross-referenced mutual fund N-PORT holdings. Every input traces to an SEC filing.

— Implied Liquidity Value

MAIN

Main Street Capital Corporation · feature case

ILV revalues each BDC’s portfolio at the lowest mark any holder in the filed universe has assigned to the same borrower at the same or more senior tranche.

The conventional question for a BDC sector trading below book is whether the discounts are overdone. ILV reframes it: are the premiums justified?

$33.33

Reported NAV

$54.01

Market Price

$31.68

Implied Liquidity Value

P/NAV 1.62× → P/ILV 1.70×

Universe ranked by P/ILV — premium at top

Ticker	NAV / share	ILV / share	P/NAV	P/ILV	Verdict
CSWC	$16.75	$13.24	1.43×	1.80×	ILV Premium
MAIN	$33.33	$31.68	1.62×	1.70×	ILV Premium
GSBD	$12.17	$5.76	0.76×	1.61×	ILV Premium
CGBD	$16.26	$7.19	0.71×	1.60×	ILV Premium
TRIN	$13.42	$13.11	1.27×	1.30×	ILV Premium
GAIN	$14.95	$14.57	1.11×	1.14×	Above Consensus
OXSQ	$1.69	$1.69	1.08×	1.08×	Above Consensus
SSSS	$14.24	$12.26	0.93×	1.08×	Above Consensus
TSLX	$16.98	$16.97	1.06×	1.06×	Above Consensus
BXSL	$26.92	$24.15	0.90×	1.00×	Near Consensus
GLAD	$21.36	$20.83	0.93×	0.96×	Near Consensus
MFIC	$14.18	$12.62	0.82×	0.93×	Near Consensus
OCSL	$16.30	$13.28	0.75×	0.91×	Near Consensus
PFLT	$10.49	$9.98	0.85×	0.89×	Near Consensus
MSIF	$15.86	$14.86	0.81×	0.86×	Near Consensus
OBDC	$14.81	$13.52	0.77×	0.84×	Discount to ILV
GECC	$8.07	$7.48	0.75×	0.81×	Discount to ILV
CCAP	$19.10	$19.10	0.71×	0.71×	Discount to ILV
PNNT	$7.00	$6.49	0.65×	0.70×	Discount to ILV
TPVG	$8.73	$8.55	0.66×	0.67×	Discount to ILV

Verdicts — P/ILV ≥ 1.20: ILV Premium · ≥ 1.05: Above Consensus · ≤ 0.85: Discount to ILV · else: Near Consensus. Top 20 shown. See methodology drawer at foot of page.

Credit deterioration signals

Reinforcement layers

Three independent views on which signals have the most corroboration. Triple-confirmed names stack mark divergence with disclosure, PIK concentration flags balance-sheet stress, and the conviction scorer merges all layers into a single 0-10 ranking.

Confidence scoring stacks independent confirmation layers: divergence exists + stale holder at P/NAV premium + 8-K disclosure + PIK or non-accrual designation + earnings-call stress language. Names reaching 3+ layers are the highest-priority review queue.

Borrower	Type	Confidence	Gap	Highest mark holder
Bluestem Brands, Inc.	Intra-filer	●●●●●	37.7%	MAIN, MSIF★ cohort
Event Holdco, LLC	Intra-filer	●●●●●	10.1%	MAIN, MSIF★ cohort
Royal Cup Inc.	Intra-filer	●●●●●	5.0%	MAIN, MSIF★ cohort
U.S. TelePacific Corp.	Multi-holder	●●●●●	97.8%	MAIN, MSIF★ cohort
HDC/HW Intermediate Holdings	Intra-filer	●●●●●	56.1%	MAIN, MSIF★ cohort
Logix Acquisition Company, LLC	Intra-filer	●●●●●	22.8%	MAIN, MSIF★ cohort
GradeEight Corp.	Intra-filer	●●●●●	8.8%	MAIN, MSIF★ cohort
Neptune Bidco US Inc.	Cross-filer	●●●●●	8.1%	OCSL★

PIK concentration as a balance-sheet stress lens. Names overlapping with divergence signals should be prioritized — a stale mark plus PIK designation means the credit is both mispriced and deteriorating.

New PIK (QoQ)

2026-Q1 → 2026-Q2

New non-accrual

quarter-over-quarter

New distressed PIK

mark <80% + PIK

Ticker	Debt par	PIK par	Concentration	Distressed
TCPC	$81M	$45M	55.3%	0
BCIC ⚠	$1,137M	$570M	50.1%	2
HTGC	$2,396M	$760M	31.7%	0
BBDC	$1,921M	$352M	18.3%	0
ARCC ⚠	$13,616M	$2,479M	18.2%	75
GECC	$652M	$84M	12.8%	0
SAR	$3,808M	$400M	10.5%	0
CCAP	$2,629M	$253M	9.6%	0
OFS	$311M	$29M	9.3%	0
PSEC	$3,642M	$269M	7.4%	0
TRIN	$4,423M	$325M	7.3%	0
NMFC ⚠	$5,471M	$391M	7.1%	3

Multi-factor score, 0-10 per borrower: mark gap (0-2) + PIK (0-2) + non-accrual (0-2) + 8-K (0-2) + transcript (0-1) + premium holder (0-1). Scores ≥7 = immediate review, ≥5 = monitor closely.

#	Borrower	Score	Gap	Conviction	Layers
1	Bluestem Brands, Inc.	6.0	37.7%	██████░░░░	GAP + PIK + N/A + 8-K + PREM
2	Watterson Brands, LLC	5.5	5.5%	█████░░░░░	GAP + PIK + N/A + 8-K + PREM
3	U.S. TelePacific Corp.	5.0	97.8%	█████░░░░░	GAP + 8-K + PREM
4	JTI Electrical & Mechanical, LLC	4.5	63.2%	████░░░░░░	GAP + 8-K + PREM
5	HDC/HW Intermediate Holdings	4.5	56.1%	████░░░░░░	GAP + 8-K + PREM
6	Cart.com, Inc.	4.0	95.7%	████░░░░░░	GAP + 8-K
7	Project Granite Holdings, LLC	4.0	61.4%	████░░░░░░	GAP + PIK + N/A + 8-K
8	Student Resource Center, LLC	4.0	28.6%	████░░░░░░	GAP + 8-K + PREM
9	Logix Acquisition Company, LLC	3.5	22.8%	███░░░░░░░	GAP + 8-K + PREM
10	Clarius BIGS, LLC	3.5	13.0%	███░░░░░░░	GAP + 8-K + PREM

Supporting evidence

New signals this week

Borrower	Type	Gap	Lowest mark	Highest mark
Dynamic Communities, LLC	Multi-holder	9.4%	MAIN, MSIF★	MAIN, CSWC
The North Highland Co, LLC	Intra-filer	9.2%	BXSL	BXSL
Richardson Sales Solutions	Intra-filer	8.8%	MSIF★	MAIN, MSIF★
GradeEight Corp.	Intra-filer	8.8%	MAIN	MAIN, MSIF★
Confluence Technologies	Multi-holder	8.5%	GECC★	BCIC
Iron-Main Investments, LLC	Intra-filer	8.1%	MAIN	MAIN, MSIF★
Neptune Bidco US Inc.	Cross-filer	8.1%	BCIC	OCSL★
Victory Energy Operations, LLC	Intra-filer	8.0%	MSIF★	MAIN, MSIF★
Centre Technologies Holdings, LLC	Intra-filer	7.5%	MAIN	MAIN, MSIF★
MoneyThumb Acquisition, LLC	Intra-filer	7.3%	MSIF★	MAIN, MSIF★
INW Manufacturing, LLC	Cross-filer	7.2%	ICMB	OCSL★
Island Pump and Tank, LLC	Intra-filer	7.0%	MSIF★	MAIN, MSIF★
Confluent Health, LLC	Multi-holder	6.9%	PFLT	PNNT
RA Outdoors LLC	Intra-filer	6.8%	MSIF★	MAIN, MSIF★
Congruex Group LLC	Cross-filer	6.4%	ICMB	MFIC•
Excel Fitness Holdings, Inc.	Intra-filer	6.4%	CGBD	MRCC, CGBD
iCIMs, Inc.	Multi-holder	6.2%	OCSL★	OCSL★
STG Distribution, LLC	Cross-filer	6.1%	PFLT	PNNT
Trucordia Insurance Holdings LLC	Cross-filer	5.8%	OCSL★	OBDC
PMA Parent Holdings LLC	Cross-filer	5.8%	BCIC	MFIC•

Top divergences by mark gap

#	Borrower	Type	Gap	Low	High	Highest mark	Lowest mark	Action
1	U.S. TelePacific Corp.	Multi-holderP/NAV↑INT	97.8%	2.2%	100.0%	MAIN, MSIF★	MSIF★	review now
2	Cart.com, Inc.	Cross-filer	95.7%	4.3%	100.0%	TPVG•	TRIN	review now
3	Thrasio, LLC	Cross-filer	92.5%	7.5%	100.0%	MRCC	OCSL★	review now
4	Marketplace Events Acquisition, LLC	Cross-filer	89.4%	10.0%	99.4%	PFLT	PNNT	review now
5	Sandvine Corporation	Intra-filerINT	76.2%	23.8%	100.0%	MRCC	MRCC	review now
6	Material Holdings, LLC	Intra-filerINT	75.1%	24.9%	100.0%	CGBD	CGBD	review now
7	JTI Electrical & Mechanical, LLC	Intra-filerP/NAV↑INT	63.2%	36.8%	100.0%	MAIN, MSIF★	MSIF★	review now
8	Project Granite Holdings, LLC	Cross-filer	61.4%	39.6%	101.0%	PFLT	PNNT	review now
9	Norvax, LLC (dba GoHealth)(3)(4)(9)	Cross-filer	60.2%	39.2%	99.4%	MFIC•	OBDC	review now
10	HDC/HW Intermediate Holdings	Intra-filerP/NAV↑INT	56.1%	43.9%	100.0%	MAIN, MSIF★	MAIN	review now
11	Express Wash Acquisition Company, LLC (Revolve	Cross-filer	44.4%	55.1%	99.6%	PFLT	MRCC	monitor
12	Bluestem Brands, Inc.	Intra-filerP/NAV↑INT	37.7%	62.3%	100.0%	MAIN, MSIF★	MSIF★	tranche review
13	Spruce Bidco I Inc.	Cross-filer	32.5%	68.1%	100.6%	ARCC•	OCSL★	monitor
14	Output Services Group, Inc.	Cross-filer	30.1%	70.0%	100.0%	MRCC	CGBD	monitor
15	Optimizely North America Inc.	Multi-holder	29.8%	98.9%	128.7%	BXSL	CGBD	monitor
16	Seacoast Service Partners NA, LLC	Intra-filerINT	28.9%	99.2%	128.1%	PNNT	PNNT	tranche review
17	Student Resource Center, LLC	Intra-filerP/NAV↑INT	28.6%	71.4%	100.0%	MAIN, MSIF★	MSIF★	tranche review
18	Logix Acquisition Company, LLC	Intra-filerP/NAV↑INT	22.8%	77.2%	100.0%	MAIN, MSIF★	MSIF★	tranche review
19	Flexera Software LLC	Multi-holder	18.9%	97.9%	116.8%	OBDC	ARCC•	monitor
20	BLST Operating Company, LLC	Cross-filer	17.9%	68.4%	86.3%	BCIC	MRCC	monitor
21	Legends Hospitality Holding Company, LLC	Cross-filer	15.2%	83.9%	99.1%	FSK	OCSL★	monitor
22	PetVet Care Centers, LLC	Multi-holderINT	14.1%	86.0%	100.0%	ARCC•	ARCC•	monitor
23	Coolsys, Inc.	Cross-filer	13.4%	85.3%	98.7%	OBDC	PFLT	low priority
24	Clarius BIGS, LLC	Cross-filerP/NAV↑	13.0%	87.0%	100.0%	MAIN	MSIF★	low priority
25	SIRVA Worldwide Inc.	Intra-filerINT	10.6%	89.5%	100.0%	MRCC	MRCC	tranche review

Structural anomalies — waterfall inversions

Junior tranche holder has marked down more than the senior on the same borrower. If the junior valuation is correct, the senior holder’s mark implies a write-down.

Thrasio, LLC

Senior tranche OCSL First Lien / Senior Secured 0.5%

capital
structure

↓

Junior tranche MRCC Second Lien 100.0%

Inversion gap: 99.5pt · If junior is correct, senior requires a 99.5pt write-down

Student Resource Center, LLC

Senior tranche MSIF First Lien / Senior Secured 71.4%

capital
structure

↓

Junior tranche CSWC Common Equity / Warrant 100.0%

Inversion gap: 28.6pt · If junior is correct, senior requires a 28.6pt write-down

DCA Investment Holdings, LLC

Senior tranche BXSL First Lien / Senior Secured 82.5%

capital
structure

↓

Junior tranche CGBD Common Equity / Warrant 99.5%

Inversion gap: 17.0pt · If junior is correct, senior requires a 17.0pt write-down

Consensus deterioration — 3+ holders

Borrower	Holders	Type	Gap	All holders	Lowest mark
Flexera Software LLC	4	Multi-holder	18.9%	ARCC, BXSL, CGBD, OBDC	ARCC
U.S. TelePacific Corp.	3	Multi-holder	97.8%	MSIF, MAIN, CGBD	MSIF
Optimizely North America Inc.	3	Multi-holder	29.8%	CGBD, BXSL, OCSL	CGBD
PetVet Care Centers, LLC	3	Multi-holder	14.1%	ARCC, OBDC, OCSL	ARCC
Dynamic Communities, LLC	3	Multi-holder	9.4%	MAIN, MSIF, CSWC	MAIN, MSIF
Confluence Technologies	3	Multi-holder	8.5%	GECC, BXSL, BCIC	GECC
Confluent Health, LLC	3	Multi-holder	6.9%	PFLT, OBDC, PNNT	PFLT
iCIMs, Inc.	3	Multi-holder	6.2%	OCSL, MRCC, CGBD	OCSL
DTI HOLDCO, INC.	3	Multi-holder	5.6%	GECC, OCSL, CGBD	GECC

Urgent 8-K filings

HIGH PSEC 2026-05-08 Items: 1.01,3.03,5.03,9.01

Keywords: suspend

View filing →

Redemption contagion — non-traded pressure on public marks

Non-traded BDCs under redemption pressure may be forced to sell loans at discounts. Public BDCs holding the same borrowers at par haven’t adjusted.

Vehicle redemption status

Vehicle	Name	Redemption %	Shared borrowers	Stale at par	Public sibling
OTEC	Blue Owl Technology Income Cor	15.0%	2	0	OBDC
BCRED	Blackstone Private Credit Fund	7.9%	694	545	BXSL
OCIC	Blue Owl Credit Income Corp	6.0%	528	328	OBDC
HLEND	HPS Corporate Lending Fund	6.0%	190	93	—
ADS	Apollo Debt Solutions BDC	5.5%	262	205	MFIC
OBDC_II	Blue Owl Capital Corp II	5.0%	428	263	OBDC
ASIF	Ares Strategic Income Fund	4.8%	201	141	ARCC
PGIM_PC	PGIM Private Credit Fund	4.8%	13	6	—
GCRED	Golub Capital Private Credit F	4.5%	140	97	GBDC
NCPCF	Nuveen Churchill Private Credi	4.5%	24	10	NCDL
PCAP	Nuveen Churchill Private Capit	4.0%	92	54	NCDL
FID_PC	Fidelity Private Credit Fund	4.0%	7	0	—
GSPC	Goldman Sachs Private Credit C	3.5%	14	8	GSBD

Shared borrowers — public BDC mark vs non-traded redemption pressure

Borrower	NT Vehicle	Redm %	Public BDC	Pub Mark	Risk
jeppesen	BCRED	8%	OCSL	99.5%	6/6	STALE
oeconnection	BCRED	8%	FSK	100.0%	6/6	STALE
consor intermediate ii	BCRED	8%	BXSL	99.1%	6/6	STALE
ep wealth advisors	BCRED	8%	ARCC	100.0%	6/6	STALE
higginbotham insurance agency	BCRED	8%	NMFC	99.5%	6/6	STALE
higginbotham insurance agency	BCRED	8%	BXSL	99.9%	6/6	STALE
higginbotham insurance agency	BCRED	8%	FSK	100.0%	6/6	STALE
bamboo us bidco	BCRED	8%	BXSL	103.4%	6/6	STALE
ppv intermediate	BCRED	8%	BXSL	99.2%	6/6	STALE
ppv intermediate	BCRED	8%	CGBD	99.4%	6/6	STALE
kona buyer	BCRED	8%	BXSL	99.1%	6/6	STALE
crumbl	BCRED	8%	BXSL	99.1%	6/6	STALE
disco parent	BCRED	8%	NMFC	99.8%	6/6	STALE
disco parent	BCRED	8%	OCSL	101.3%	6/6	STALE
galway borrower	BCRED	8%	BXSL	99.5%	6/6	STALE

Dividend coverage

Coverage ratio = trailing NII / annual dividend. Below 1.0× = dividend not covered by earnings.

Ticker	NII / sh	Div / sh	Coverage	Yield	P/NAV
SSSS	$-0.15	$0.50	-0.30×	3.8%	0.93×	AT RISK
MSIF	$-0.14	$1.41	-0.10×	11.0%	0.81×	AT RISK
OXSQ	$0.13	$0.42	0.31×	22.9%	1.08×	AT RISK
NMFC	$0.91	$1.21	0.75×	14.4%	0.72×	AT RISK
CSWC	$2.17	$2.56	0.85×	10.7%	1.43×	AT RISK
SLRC	$1.33	$1.54	0.86×	11.4%	0.74×	AT RISK
GECC	$1.11	$1.20	0.93×	21.1%	0.75×	AT RISK
FSK	$2.55	$2.58	0.99×	23.8%	0.52×	AT RISK
MAIN	$4.91	$4.38	1.12×	8.1%	1.62×
BBDC	$1.19	$1.04	1.14×	11.7%	0.81×
HTGC	$2.20	$1.88	1.17×	11.6%	1.32×
ICMB	$0.61	$0.52	1.17×	30.8%	0.40×
BCSF	$2.02	$1.68	1.20×	12.3%	0.79×
PFLT	$1.50	$1.23	1.22×	13.8%	0.85×
MRCC	$0.97	$0.77	1.26×	15.2%	nan×
CGBD	$2.07	$1.60	1.29×	13.9%	0.71×
OCSL	$2.08	$1.60	1.30×	13.2%	0.75×
WHF	$1.73	$1.28	1.35×	16.9%	0.66×
GBDC	$2.03	$1.44	1.41×	10.8%	0.89×
TRIN	$2.87	$2.04	1.41×	11.8%	1.27×

NAV per share change

Declining NAV + stale marks = markdown has not yet hit the stock price.

Ticker	Prior NAV	Current NAV	Change
BCIC	$16.68	$15.60	▼6.47%	DECLINING
GSBD	$12.64	$12.17	▼3.72%	DECLINING
BBDC	$11.09	$11.02	▼0.63%
BCSF	$17.23	$17.23	▲0.00%
BXSL	$26.92	$26.92	▲0.00%
CCAP	$19.10	$19.10	▲0.00%
CGBD	$16.26	$16.26	▲0.00%
CION	$13.76	$13.76	▲0.00%
CSWC	$16.75	$16.75	▲0.00%
FDUS	$19.55	$19.55	▲0.00%
FSK	$20.88	$20.88	▲0.00%
GAIN	$14.95	$14.95	▲0.00%
GBDC	$14.84	$14.84	▲0.00%
GECC	$8.07	$8.07	▲0.00%
HRZN	$6.98	$6.98	▲0.00%

Implied Liquidity Value (ILV)

ILV revalues each BDC’s portfolio at the lowest mark any holder in the filed universe has assigned to the same borrower at the same or more senior tranche, then applies a redemption haircut. It is a stress lens, not a fair-value claim. Most informative when the lowest mark is confirmed by multiple independent holders.

Verdict thresholds: P/ILV ≥ 1.20 = ILV Premium · ≥ 1.05 = Above Consensus · ≤ 0.85 = Discount to ILV · else = Near Consensus.

Signal types

Cross-filer — Different BDCs on each side of the divergence.
Intra-filer — Same BDC holds tranches at both the high and low mark.
Multi-holder — 3+ BDCs hold the borrower; stale cohort vs single markdown.
Waterfall — Junior tranche marked below senior on the same borrower.
P/NAV↑ — Stale holder trading at P/NAV premium; market hasn’t priced markdown.
INT — Same-seniority internal inconsistency within one BDC.

Conviction scoring

Score 0-10 per borrower stacks six independent confirmation layers: mark gap (0-2) + PIK designation (0-2) + non-accrual (0-2) + 8-K disclosure (0-2) + earnings-call transcript stress (0-1) + premium holder exposure (0-1). Scores ≥7 warrant immediate review.

Transcript badges

Ticker badges indicate the BDC discussed credit stress on its most recent earnings press release. ★ = triple-confirmed (stress language plus stale marks plus premium valuation). • = single-layer stress mention. Hover any badge for the underlying quote.

Data sources

Schedule of Investments from 45 public BDCs via 10-Q/10-K EDGAR filings; 13 non-traded BDC vehicles; mutual fund cross-references via N-PORT filings; 8-K Item 2.02 / 7.01 press releases; market pricing via yfinance. Every input traces to an SEC filing.