ConvexityLab · BDC Credit Monitor September 21, 2026

Weekly Signal Report

Cross-holder mark surveillance across 45 public BDCs, non-traded vehicles, and mutual-fund N-PORT filings.

This report starts with a simple question: which BDC NAVs are least supported by the rest of the filed universe. We compare loan and equity marks across public BDCs, non-traded vehicles, and mutual funds to identify where one holder is already telling a different story. The point is not to declare the lowest mark “correct”; it is to measure where reported NAV depends on marks that look stale relative to other real filers. This week, the most important signals are concentrated in a handful of names where premium valuations, internal inconsistencies, and cross-holder markdowns are colliding.

In a sector-wide selloff, that distinction matters more than who merely looks cheap on reported book.

Active divergences
73
borrower marks in dispute
New this week
31
vs prior run
High-confidence signals
25
3+ confirmation layers
Waterfall inversions
11
structural anomalies
This week — decisions
Module 1
Best Long Setup
The name where the discount appears real rather than manufactured by stale marks. Reported NAV close to filed consensus, ILV holds up, stock still discounted because the market is de-risking the whole sector at once.
OFS
P/NAV 0.43× · P/ILV 0.44× · ILV gap -2.4%
Reported NAV $8.41, ILV $8.21. Marks substantially agree across holders. In the current sector-wide de-risking, this is a discount to a book value that still looks broadly credible.
Also considered
BCIC — P/ILV 0.50×
CION — P/ILV 0.53×
Module 2
Best Short / Hedge
The name where valuation depends on marks that other holders have already taken down. Strict filter: the ILV premium must be confirmed by an independent stress signal — transcript language, waterfall inversion, or material 8-K.
MAIN
P/NAV 1.66× · P/ILV 1.73× · 32% of book adjusted in ILV
Price $56.19 vs. NAV $33.92 vs. ILV $32.54. Once cross-holder marks are applied, most of the reported book reprices lower. Independent confirmation: waterfall inversion.
Module 3
Best Underfollowed
The borrower-level signal most likely to matter before the market fully notices — a single holder still carrying a mark that no other filer supports.
us telepacific
72.7pt gap · stale MAIN @ P/NAV 1.66× · marked down by MSIF
Mark range 26.4%–99.2% across 2 holders. The stale holder trades at a premium to sector median, which means the market has not yet priced this borrower-level stress through the equity. This is one of the borrowers underwriting MAIN's premium.
MAIN holds 5 additional borrowers with the same pattern. See the short-side module above for the consolidated thesis.
Fair Value · No Action
OXSQ (0.98×)  ·  BXSL (1.03×)  ·  GAIN (1.05×)  ·  ARCC (1.07×)  ·  GLAD (0.91×)  ·  TSLX (1.11×)  ·  GSBD (0.88×)
Names where P/ILV sits in fair range and no triple-confirmed stress is present. Sometimes ‘no action’ is the most valuable signal.
The valuation lens

Stress-tested NAV across the universe

Inputs: 37 public BDCs, non-traded BDC vehicles, and cross-referenced mutual fund N-PORT holdings. Every input traces to an SEC filing.

Universe reconciliation: 45 covered → 37 in the ILV table. Excluded 8: 3 no valid positions for ILV (BCSF, GBDC, SCM) · 1 quarantined: non-tabular SOI format (latest parse: 2 rows, both unusable) (EQS) · 1 quarantined: multi-row value attribution (104/104 rows lack fair value) (FDUS) · 1 quarantined: fair-value extraction failure (2026-07-05 v3-trio attempt failed gates: row ratio 0.46, FV sum -23% vs stated — see soi_gate_PSEC_20260705.json) (PSEC) · 1 quarantined: narrative block format double-counts per-borrower block-total FVs (re-parse +40.5% vs stated total, soi_gate_RAND_20260706.json); incumbent v2 parse is also period-contaminated (53% eligible prior-quarter echoes) — excluded per Codex R3 no-grandfathering pass, 2026-07-06 (RAND) · 1 skip-list (SAR).

— Implied Liquidity Value
MAIN
Main Street Capital Corporation · feature case

ILV revalues each BDC’s portfolio at the lowest mark any holder in the filed universe has assigned to the same borrower at the same or more senior tranche.

The conventional question for a BDC sector trading below book is whether the discounts are overdone. ILV reframes it: are the premiums justified?

$33.92
Reported NAV
$56.19
Market Price
$32.54
Implied Liquidity Value
P/NAV 1.66× P/ILV 1.73×
Universe ranked by P/ILV — premium at top
Ticker NAV / share ILV / share P/NAV P/ILV Verdict
MAIN $33.92 $32.54 1.66× 1.73× ILV Premium
CSWC $16.61 $16.16 1.41× 1.45× ILV Premium
HTGC $12.15 $12.13 1.43× 1.43× ILV Premium
TRIN $13.47 $13.35 1.31× 1.32× ILV Premium
TSLX $16.24 $16.17 1.10× 1.11× Above Consensus
ARCC $19.35 $18.07 1.00× 1.07× Above Consensus
GAIN $16.24 $15.06 0.98× 1.05× Above Consensus
BXSL $25.53 $24.03 0.97× 1.03× Near Consensus
OXSQ $1.29 $1.29 0.98× 0.98× Near Consensus
GLAD $21.50 $21.28 0.90× 0.91× Near Consensus
GSBD $12.06 $11.08 0.80× 0.88× Near Consensus
OCSL $15.70 $14.19 0.79× 0.87× Near Consensus
KBDC $16.00 $15.80 0.82× 0.83× Discount to ILV
OBDC $14.26 $13.55 0.78× 0.82× Discount to ILV
BBDC $10.94 $10.82 0.80× 0.81× Discount to ILV
MSIF $16.51 $15.76 0.75× 0.79× Discount to ILV
HRZN $6.23 $6.06 0.75× 0.77× Discount to ILV
CGBD $15.61 $14.76 0.73× 0.77× Discount to ILV
PFLT $10.26 $10.00 0.68× 0.70× Discount to ILV
GECC $7.95 $7.83 0.69× 0.70× Discount to ILV

Verdicts — P/ILV ≥ 1.20: ILV Premium · ≥ 1.05: Above Consensus · ≤ 0.85: Discount to ILV · else: Near Consensus. Top 20 shown. See methodology drawer at foot of page.

Credit deterioration signals

Reinforcement layers

Three independent views on which signals have the most corroboration. Triple-confirmed names stack mark divergence with disclosure, PIK concentration flags balance-sheet stress, and the conviction scorer merges all layers into a single 0-10 ranking.

Confidence scoring stacks independent confirmation layers: divergence exists + stale holder at P/NAV premium + 8-K disclosure + PIK or non-accrual designation + earnings-call stress language. Names reaching 3+ layers are the highest-priority review queue.

Borrower Type Confidence Gap Highest mark holder
RA Outdoors, LLC Multi-holder 50.5% MAIN, MSIF cohort
Bluestem Brands, Inc. Intra-filer 37.7% MAIN, MSIF cohort
Logix Acquisition Company, LLC Intra-filer 22.8% MAIN, MSIF cohort
Event Holdco, LLC Intra-filer 10.1% MAIN, MSIF cohort
Centre Technologies Holdings, LLC Intra-filer 7.5% MAIN, MSIF cohort
Dynamic Communities, LLC Intra-filer 7.5% MAIN, MSIF cohort
MoneyThumb Acquisition, LLC Intra-filer 7.3% MAIN, MSIF cohort
Titan Meter Midco Corp. Intra-filer 5.6% MAIN, MSIF cohort

PIK concentration as a balance-sheet stress lens. Names overlapping with divergence signals should be prioritized — a stale mark plus PIK designation means the credit is both mispriced and deteriorating.

New PIK (QoQ)
58
2026-Q2r5 → 2026-Q3
New non-accrual
245
quarter-over-quarter
New distressed PIK
21
mark <80% + PIK
Ticker Debt par PIK par Concentration Distressed
ARCC ⚠ $1,958M $2,865M
146.3%
76
HTGC ⚠ $4,382M $1,790M
40.9%
2
SAR $1,097M $400M
36.5%
0
ICMB $220M $79M
36.0%
0
OFS ⚠ $284M $77M
27.3%
5
TCPC ⚠ $10,298M $2,661M
25.8%
1
NMFC ⚠ $1,834M $468M
25.5%
7
BBDC ⚠ $2,075M $384M
18.5%
15
BCSF $244M $32M
12.9%
0
GECC $724M $79M
11.0%
0
CCAP ⚠ $1,524M $160M
10.5%
6
TRIN $4,639M $326M
7.0%
0

Multi-factor score, 0-10 per borrower: mark gap (0-2) + PIK (0-2) + non-accrual (0-2) + 8-K (0-2) + transcript (0-1) + premium holder (0-1). Scores ≥7 = immediate review, ≥5 = monitor closely.

# Borrower Score Gap Conviction Layers
1 Bluestem Brands, Inc. 6.0 37.7% ██████░░░░ GAP + PIK + N/A + 8-K + PREM
2 U.S. TelePacific Corp. 4.5 72.7% ████░░░░░░ GAP + 8-K + PREM
3 JTI Electrical & Mechanical, LLC 4.5 63.2% ████░░░░░░ GAP + 8-K + PREM
4 RA Outdoors, LLC 4.5 50.5% ████░░░░░░ GAP + 8-K + PREM
5 Student Resource Center, LLC 4.0 28.6% ████░░░░░░ GAP + 8-K + PREM
6 SpendMend Holdings LLC 3.5 66.4% ███░░░░░░░ GAP + 8-K
7 Isagenix International, LLC (6) 3.5 63.9% ███░░░░░░░ GAP + 8-K
8 HDC/HW Intermediate Holdings 3.5 55.7% ███░░░░░░░ GAP + 8-K
9 MRI Software LLC 3.5 47.2% ███░░░░░░░ GAP + PIK + N/A + 8-K
10 Logix Acquisition Company, LLC 3.5 22.8% ███░░░░░░░ GAP + 8-K + PREM
Supporting evidence

New signals this week

Top divergences by mark gap

Structural anomalies — waterfall inversions

A senior tranche is marked below a more-junior claim (capped at par) on the same borrower. Recovery waterfalls make that internally inconsistent: if the junior valuation is right, the senior holder is late to write down.

Thrasio, LLC
Senior tranche OCSL First Lien / Senior Secured 20.6%
capital
structure
Junior tranche MRCC Second Lien 100.0%
Inversion gap: 79.4pt  ·  If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 79.4pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low
SpendMend Holdings LLC
Senior tranche GSBD First Lien / Senior Secured 33.2%
capital
structure
Junior tranche PFLT Common Equity / Warrant 99.3%
Inversion gap: 66.1pt  ·  If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 66.1pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low
Diligent Corporation
Senior tranche GSBD First Lien / Senior Secured 38.5%
capital
structure
Junior tranche CGBD Mezz / Subordinated / Unsecured 100.0%
Inversion gap: 61.5pt  ·  If the senior mark is informative, the junior requires a 61.5pt write-down; if the junior is correct, the senior mark is too low

Consensus deterioration — 3+ holders

Urgent 8-K filings

No urgent 8-K filings in the last 7 days.

Redemption contagion — non-traded pressure on public marks

Non-traded BDCs under redemption pressure may be forced to sell loans at discounts. Public BDCs holding the same borrowers at par haven’t adjusted.

Vehicle redemption status
Vehicle Name Redemption % Shared borrowers Stale at par Public sibling
OTEC Blue Owl Technology Income Cor 15.0% 2 0 OBDC
BCRED Blackstone Private Credit Fund 7.9% 684 539 BXSL
OCIC Blue Owl Credit Income Corp 6.0% 535 334 OBDC
HLEND HPS Corporate Lending Fund 6.0% 160 94
ADS Apollo Debt Solutions BDC 5.5% 293 228 MFIC
OBDC_II Blue Owl Capital Corp II 5.0% 426 260 OBDC
ASIF Ares Strategic Income Fund 4.8% 195 142 ARCC
PGIM_PC PGIM Private Credit Fund 4.8% 9 6
GCRED Golub Capital Private Credit F 4.5% 143 104 GBDC
NCPCF Nuveen Churchill Private Credi 4.5% 20 13 NCDL
PCAP Nuveen Churchill Private Capit 4.0% 83 59 NCDL
FID_PC Fidelity Private Credit Fund 4.0% 2 0
GSPC Goldman Sachs Private Credit C 3.5% 6 2 GSBD

Dividend coverage

Coverage ratio = trailing NII / annual dividend. Below 1.0× = dividend not covered by earnings.

NAV per share change

Declining NAV + stale marks = markdown has not yet hit the stock price.

Implied Liquidity Value (ILV)

ILV revalues each BDC’s portfolio at the lowest mark any holder in the filed universe has assigned to the same borrower at the same or more senior tranche, then applies a redemption haircut. It is a stress lens, not a fair-value claim. Most informative when the lowest mark is confirmed by multiple independent holders.

Verdict thresholds: P/ILV ≥ 1.20 = ILV Premium · ≥ 1.05 = Above Consensus · ≤ 0.85 = Discount to ILV · else = Near Consensus.

Signal types

  • Cross-filer — Different BDCs on each side of the divergence.
  • Intra-filer — Same BDC holds tranches at both the high and low mark.
  • Multi-holder — 3+ BDCs hold the borrower; stale cohort vs single markdown.
  • Waterfall — Senior tranche marked below a junior claim (capped at par) on the same borrower.
  • P/NAV↑ — Stale holder trading at P/NAV premium; market hasn’t priced markdown.
  • INT — Same-seniority internal inconsistency within one BDC.

Conviction scoring

Score 0-10 per borrower stacks six independent confirmation layers: mark gap (0-2) + PIK designation (0-2) + non-accrual (0-2) + 8-K disclosure (0-2) + earnings-call transcript stress (0-1) + premium holder exposure (0-1). Scores ≥7 warrant immediate review.

Transcript badges

Ticker badges indicate the BDC discussed credit stress on its most recent earnings press release. ★ = triple-confirmed (stress language plus stale marks plus premium valuation). • = single-layer stress mention. Hover any badge for the underlying quote.

Data sources

Schedule of Investments from 45 public BDCs via 10-Q/10-K EDGAR filings; 13 non-traded BDC vehicles; mutual fund cross-references via N-PORT filings; 8-K Item 2.02 / 7.01 press releases; market pricing via yfinance. Every input traces to an SEC filing.